IDEAS For Alternative Transport Technology
$5 Trillion Green Economy Model
(GEM)
America needs a new economic model for the movement of goods and people.
This movement is at the heart of our economy and the lifeblood of every community in
which
we live, work and invest. Current population forecasts for the USA
include a population growth by 2050 of 100 million and
approximately 95
million more motor vehicles. The next generation of transport is emerging as
automated guideway transport (AGT) and promises to increase our economic
vitality even more. The US Chamber of Commerce estimates that every $1 billion invested in transit, creates 47,000 jobs.
Even more important is that we need to prepare a transition from an oil based
economy to something renewable and non polluting. AGT could achieve ten
times the gas savings per vehicle as cars get today. We propose a new economic model of private sector funded AGT
and Renewable Energy
infrastructure generating power to the economy, developing pedestrian villages at
station stops and creating an array of public benefits over the next
few decades. Here's how to attract a trillion dollars to a
new Green Bond industry to build a national AGT system equal in size to the
Interstate Highways System of 50,000 miles: Use tax credits. Give investors
their money back within ten years in the form of tax credits and tax free earnings
for 20 years.
After which, each system using these tax credits must be donated to state government.
If one third of the AGT constructed has two stations per mile as many as 20,000
pedestrian villages would result. If each one averaged 1000 condos and a
supporting mix of services, then 30 to 40 million people could live work,
play and shop
without the need for owning a car. They could use uses buses, taxis,
trolleys and car rentals to go off-line into other areas. Such systems
will also attract a sizable ridership and more revenues from people
working in these villages. AGT can link activity centers such as hospitals, malls, resorts,
campuses, airports
and office parks. AGT and its pedestrian
villages can both be built using clean energy. The new labor and
property tax bases generated will add hundreds of billions of dollars per year to
both federal and state coffers from the trillions of dollars in
additional investments for real estate development at the stations.
COMING OIL SHOCKS TO OUR ECONOMY
But our lives are about to change by the economic disruption caused by our dependence on oil. The global supply of oil is “peaking” and henceforth may well diminish every year. At the same time demand is out-running supply because of the modernization of China, India and industrialization elsewhere. Just to keep even with today's supply, experts predict we need to find 6,000 wells per year each producing 1000 barrels per day.
CAN YOUR BUSINESS SURVIVE $6 PER GALLON GAS?
The International Energy Agency says, ''The world has never faced a problem like this. The problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. It will become a huge disruption to the economy and requires massive mitigation more than a decade before new technologies can have impact.” Every city needs to have a plan for the economic shock that will result from Oil Peaking. If we ignore the problem and business proceeds as usual, we may wake up into a new economic condition for which we are not prepared as the price of gasoline inevitably goes higher. We may see gas gouging, rationing and driving restrictions within the coming decade that cause economic disruption greater than that seen during the 1930’s depression. The experts state that it will happen, although no one knows when. But if we cannot predict when, we can certainly prepare.
|
"The economic threat of oil peaking - of production beginning to fail to meet world demand and the associated dramatic price increases that can be expected - is staggering," studies say. "Without an aggressive alternative fuel production program, the U.S. economy could lose $4.6 trillion in Gross Domestic Product and 40 million job years over employment if oil peaks in 2010." |
POWER THE ECONOMY
The $13
trillion American economy relies on a worn and under-maintained
transportation infrastructure that is approaching gridlock. It needs a new
way of growing to meet the future demands of increasing population and to
slow global warming. Each
Automated Guideway Transport (AGT) dollar is expected to generate $5 or more in development projects at station
stops. Transportation investment has historically generated multiplier
investment in adjacent real
estate
property. With our existing transportation systems all over-loaded, an
elevated transportation network is needed for continued growth. AGT offers the triple potential to unclog existing systems,
earn profits and generate new growth of pedestrian villages around station
stops.
Real estate investment multipliers range from four to
ten times transit investment. Therefore each $1 billion invested in AGT will generate $5
billion in pedestrian villages along that route. At each station, an 850' walking radius contains over
2 million square feet of
land area. Zoning regulations allowing 5-to-1 densities would grow small
mixed use pedestrian villages that attract a driverless population. Mixed use development around many stations could grow into the hundreds
of billions of dollars in new tax base. For each AGT
route, thousands of development jobs will be created in both
transport and real estate. These could grow into
millions of jobs as the routes densify and interconnect and offer more
coverage through out the states.
PRIVATIZATION IS THE ENGINE
Profits are the fuel. Now transit itself can make a profit. Our studies
show that small, lightweight AGT systems can yield (before
tax) returns of 7% to 15%, well in excess of those generated by
government owned systems. The
ridership and fares needed to achieve these results are both reasonable
and achievable. Over time, increasing ridership and the
corresponding revenue will grow more profitable on any fixed cost
installation. Using Colorado as a background to illustrate, we have built
our privatization business case online and invite you to inspect it
on the
Routes page. We are working on demonstration model franchises in Colorado that we believe could prove the
feasibility for profitable operations of a 24 x 7 AGT infrastructure in a
variety of route sizes.
Applied on
a national scale, AGT could provide a
50,000-mile web,
linking airports, highways, metro areas, event centers, downtown areas, malls,
campuses, resorts, hospitals and even some residential neighborhoods. The real estate spin off for
stations and real estate development are likely to be in the trillions of
dollars
revolutionizing our cities while growing a new real estate tax base and an economic engine for decades to come.
Our economic formula is $1 invested AGT infrastructure generates $5 in real estate development, which over 25 years
generates a tax base larger than the initial transport development. During that time, the transportation investors
receive the cash flow.
HOW MUCH WILL A TRILLION DOLLARS BUY?
 |
The Interstate Highway System is made up of 50,000 miles including all the metro area routes and loops. It cost $425 billion and took 40 years to build. It changed the economics and land uses of the entire country. A $1 trillion investment in AGT and clean energy infrastructure would produce a similar 50,000 mile backbone grid of AGT transport made up of many vendors as with the airline industry. |
AGT will cost, on average, about $15 to $20 million per mile. If it earns more than other public investments, then there is plenty of private money to fuel a trillion dollar AGT industry, For example, the Internet showed how quickly a trillion in capital formation can occur for national infrastructure. The Internet attracted and lost over $3 trillion in capital in less than ten years. Today there is over $2.5 trillion in money markets saving accounts earning less than 3% and waiting for a better investment climate. The stock market has $8.5 trillion. The Iraqi war is said to cost over $1 Trillion so far. There is $7.6 trillion in home equities in America and in 2005 alone $2.5 trillion was refinanced. Our infrastructure as an industry is said to be $6 Billion in size. There is more than enough money for AGT to grow a trillion market and generate new real estate investments in our cities. Over the next ten years, America's GNP is expected to exceed $150 trillion cumulatively and yet is dependant on an aging and overloaded transportation network. AGT can do even more to power the economy by stimulating huge multiplier investments in the real estate around the stations. Land use historically follows transportation technology from rivers, to roads, to rails, to highways, then airports and next to AGT.
We are saying that AGT is capable of attracting capital for any route that can offer a 10% long term return. Transportation, being America's forth largest industry and accounting for 11% of the Gross National Product ( now exceeding $13 trillion) is primed for automation and possesses conditions that are ripe for explosive growth.
AGT INDUSTRY FORMATION FACTORS
-
Emergence
of new companies collectively interfacing
-
Variety
of technologies that can be integrated in many configurations
-
Private
sector financing with better returns than the existing methodologies
-
Increased
consumer efficiency
-
Increased
economic development in other related industries
-
Minimum
governmental involvement
-
Clean
Industry is the future
MULTIPLE PUBLIC BENEFITS
Rarely can one idea do so much and with as many spin offs, as a national AGT
network could do.
Here are number of foreseeable public benefits that could result:
- Replace
a percentage of automobile
demand
- Reduce foreign oil dependence
-
Introduce
higher fuel economy on a national scale
-
Reduce pollution and slow global warming
-
Investment
multiplier of 5 to 1 in new pedestrian development around stations
-
This
new "pedestrian village" growth would generates huge tax revenues
-
Link
airports, metro areas, highways, light rail and other transport systems
-
Reduce
highway congestion
-
Reduce
airport gridlock
-
Stimulate
the travel industry
-
Replace government transit funding so it can be used elsewhere
-
Everyone
can participate
_- Spread of Clean Energy Generation
MULTIPLE DEVELOPMENT CONSORTIA
This infrastructure can set the conditions for thousands of companies to grow new profits by incorporating automation, information and robotic technologies in tomorrow's economy of innovation. In every state, various industries will be required to organize, fund, build and operate a variety of AGT transport routes and technologies. Below is a list of the main industries that would be stimulated by hundreds of thousands of jobs to build a nationwide AGT backbone network:
| Propulsion Systems | Credit Cards processing | Voter Campaigns | |
| Travel Info & Reservations | Cargo Integration | Vehicle Assembly | |
| Automation System | Station Development | Underwriting | |
| Power Distribution | Raw Concrete & Steel | Money Management | |
| Guideway Fabrication | Seat Laptop Advertising | Engineering | |
| Economic Feasibility | Construction Management | Energy Generation |
Comparable
Emerging Transport Technologies
The transit
industry is exploding with ideas and organized efforts to solve growing congestion.
Below are described the huge variety of technologies that are available today. However, the only technology that is currently
attracting funding is traditional rail which is by and large,
ground-based. Traditional rail costs, at a minimum, $35 to $45 million per mile and
is largely funded by the federal government. Here is a list of 150
alternative transport technologies:
YOU CAN ALSO PARTICIPATE
in a Joint Study Group
We promote collective
creativity as the key to our shared American future. Tomorrow starts today. You can respond to these ideas by selecting one of these choices
below. If
you own businesses that could provide any of these products or services, open
a dialog with us and join our
development consortia
that builds our demo model.
●
View
our web site to inspect our technology and economic feasibility for your
town
●
Register
for our newsletter; a free monthly email to keep up in this industry
●
Become
an "Interactive Member" by joining
our feedback group to shape consensus
Lloyd Goff
303-671-5340
[email protected]
